(Some of my co-workers call this Lorin’s Law)
Even highly reliable systems go down occasionally. After having read over the details of several incidents, I’ve started to notice a pattern, which has led me to the following conjecture:
Once a system reaches a certain level of reliability, most major incidents will involve:
- A manual intervention that was intended to mitigate a minor incident, or
- Unexpected behavior of a subsystem whose primary purpose was to improve reliability
Here are three examples from Amazon’s post-mortem write-ups of major AWS outages:
The S3 outage on February 28, 2017 involved a manual intervention to debug an issue that was causing the S3 billing system to progress more slowly than expected.
The DynamoDB outage on September 20, 2015 (which also affected SQS, auto scaling, and CloudWatch) involved healthy storage servers taking themselves out of service by executing a distributed protocol that was (presumably) designed that way for fault tolerance.
The EBS outage on October 22, 2012 (which also affected EC2, RDS, and ELBs) involved a memory leak bug in an agent that monitors the health of EBS servers.